Saturday 13 February 2016

A Fugitive From Justice

Don't tell M that there is a reward on my capture dead or alive. I'm probably safe from a deadly encounter because I'm just too big for the slight M to drag my corpse to the sheriff.

My crime was inadvertent. At least that is my story. It is not advisable to be a shoplifter and work in a Mall. I'm a Mall worker at Toronto's Eaton Centre and I get the store discounts to prove it. One would think that regular discounts would discourage absconding of merchandise without tendering currency in exchange for goods and services.      

I thought that I got away with it until my co-worker noticed a reward sign in the store. They were looking for a middle aged man with what she thought was luxurious hair. But it turned out to be ludicrous hair. While there are a few middle aged men in the Mall with bad haircuts, it does narrow the field somewhat.

My crime was small and went unnoticed. I'm not going to give a full confession here as it may be used against me. Let's just say that I purchased a series of items and one of the smaller items was hidden from the view of the checkout person. It left the store unpaid for. Now I didn't notice the crime until much later and by then the item was already gone. It was too awkward at that time to fess up. I can tell you as a small consultation that the item was less than $3 and I have dropped $hundreds in that store.

Word of my crime has spread in the office. It has increased my street cred. Let's just say that the underwriters in my office are giving me a wide berth in the cafeteria. It reminds one of the bad George Costanza from Seinfeld.

Living in downtown Toronto you hear a lot of police sirens. I have to confess that every time I hear a siren I get a little jumpy. Being a fugitive from justice is not all guts and glory, but you may want to cross to the other side of the street if you see me coming.

Negative Interest Rates

There is speculation that Canada will be the next country where the central bank sets negative interest rates. This forces reluctant banks to lend money. Right now banks and corporations are sitting on piles of cash.

It bothers me when interest rates are cut by the central bank and my mortgage company the Royal Bank increases mortgage rates. Punishing the good credit clients because they are too scared to lend money. I have been with RBC for 35 years. They have had mortgages, car loans, credit cards and  lines of credit with me for decades. I have never defaulted. In fact it would be impossible to default because I have asset backed loans. I'm risk free and they have made a ton of money from me. Not so much as a thank you or "how do you do?" from them.

The Canadian economy is stagnating. The $dollar tanking and oil prices are in free fall. Only the construction and housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver are healthy. If the housing market crashed we might as well hand in our First World papers and join the Third World community of nations.

The biggest mistake I made was conservative investing in the TSX. I believed in Republican dogma and bet on Harper over Obama. It cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars. The NYSE outperformed the TSX by a wide margin. I'm a patient investor and I never panic. I have made tons of money on the panic investing of dummies. The same dim bulbs that sold their stocks after 9/11. Believe in the cyclical nature of the stock markets and invest long term. It is tried and true formula.

I believe in stimulus spending on infrastructure by governments. I don't believe that taxes are an evil thing. After George Bush nearly bankrupted the US economy, Obama's stimulus brought stability to the markets and rescued entire industries. Now America has to lower its spending. Harper tried the opposite, he reigned in spending hellbent on a balanced budget. He provided no stimulus and relied on an oil boom to float the economy. When oil prices collapsed his house of cards tumbled and the Canadian economy is in crisis. Trudeau is about to let the deficit increase with infrastructure spending to stimulate the economy.

There are two sure investments in Canada guaranteed to make you money. Real estate in Vancouver and Toronto. I own a couple of pieces of Toronto real estate. On top of that investment I use one as a domicile for my aching feet.

I have read for the past decade about the imminent collapse of the Toronto housing market. Like clock work you can count on articles on two topics in the national newspapers. One is an article written by a Brian Mulroney flunky that the former PM was misunderstood and the other about the collapse of Toronto real estate.

Toronto real estate will continue to boom. Constant immigration, urban sprawl and longer commute times will keep the money train on the track. In retrospect I should have invested more in real estate and less in the TSX.




Saturday 6 February 2016

Name the Affluent School

I have vaguely heard of Dave Bidini a local writer and musician.
He has written an article for a publication I have never heard of, the National Observer. Maybe it is just me and I should know more about Bidini and the National Observer. I'm taking a chance that it not like The Onion and the articles are not fake.

Bidini writes an opinion piece with the premise that the Toronto Raptors lack of Canadian press is due to racism. That he has to search on page six of the sports section to read about the Raptors recent win streak.  No doubt NHL hockey is the lead every night but it is easy to find Raptor articles.

What really got my attention was a story that Bidini leads off with about a"sports event" which he refuses to identify, at his kid's school. Bidini claims that a school from an affluent Toronto neighbourhood demanded that the gym be cleared of fans. That the fans were primarily black. He claims that the fans were not removed from the stands, as no good reason was given.

Why would you not name the affluent school? That would be the lead story in the Toronto Star if true and would be a huge scandal. If that story is not an outright lie than there has to be more to it and Bidini should give us the full story. If that happened in my city I want to hear about it.

I agree with Bidini that the Raptors do not have a national following like the Blue Jays. It is cultural and is reflected in the TV ratings for their games. I'm a big Raptors fan and I live in downtown Toronto. I would watch a Raptors game over the Leafs. By and large people in Saskatchewan do not follow the Raptors. That should not bother anyone. Sports in primarily local and while some teams have broader appeal, most don't. I don't care for curling and won't be watching The Brier. That should not offend people on The Prairies.

The Raptors sell out every game. In the playoffs they have thousands of young people watching them on the big screen outside of the ACC arena. They have a big, diverse following in the GTA. Be content with that, don't wish for people in Medicine Hat to follow your team.

Bidini's comment that the Raptors have been around for decades is an exaggeration if not factually incorrect. This is their 20th season.

If you look closely you will find the Raptors on the first page of most sports sections in Toronto. They play second fiddle to their owners, the Leafs, because this is Canada and hockey always leads.

I would not sit in a sold out arena, surrounded by thousands of screaming fans, worried that some fisherfolk in The Maritimes doesn't care if my team wins or loses.