Friday, 5 April 2013

Canadian Stock Market v. New York Stocks


The major difference between the US government Cabinet versus the Canadian Cabinet, is that the US Cabinet has experts in their field fill Cabinet posts, while Canada's PM must choose from government MP's. It creates a huge gap in competency.

Stephen Harper has a very weak caucus in which to choose a Cabinet. It is filled with socially Conservative ideologues and few business professionals. Harper was forced to choose an Insurance defence lawyer as his Finance Minister. Jim Flaherty is not a Bay Street business professional. He is not a CEO, or even an expert in the field. Obama can choose a Wall Street pro as his chief economic adviser. 

Canada's greatest ever finance Minister, Paul Martin, left massive surpluses and kept the Canadian banks from issuing sub prime mortgages. He handed over the economy to Harper and Flaherty. They in turn squandered the surpluses, PRIOR to the recession.  

Prior to the recession the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) was more than 2,000 points higher than the NYSE. Since the market crash the NYSE has reached record levels. The TSX has floundered and is now 2,000 points lower than the NYSE. Part of the difference is the value of the currencies, however the TSX has greatly under performed.    

Despite recent dismal economic news, including horrific employment numbers, I'm still bullish on the longterm prospects of the TSX. The market always recovers. It has for 100 years. It goes through periodic corrections but always trends upwards. 

I would like to see a regime change in Canada and it is only a matter of time before the current government is tossed from office. 

I always shake my head when I see people jump like lemmings out of the market at the slightest distress, almost always selling at a loss. Unless you are close to retirement, do you really believe the market will not recover over the long term? Blue chip bank stocks have reached their lifetime peak? Oil prices will not recover? Stick it out and the market always goes up in the long term. 

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